Global Research

13 November 2015

 

Uni-President China Holdings

What's next after margin reaches historical peak?

Evidence Lab survey indicates UPC ranks No.2 in noodles and tea drinks

Today we published Evidence Lab: Thriving T4-5 consumption, a report focusing on T4-5 city consumers' spending habits, brand awareness and preferences. UPC ranks No. 2 in instant noodles and RTD tea. UPC's purchase intent is around half of Tingyi in instant noodles, suggesting potential market share gains if products in this segment can be expanded. The intense price war between Tingyi and UPC in 2013-14 caused negative publicity in the instant noodles segment, leading to reduced segment spending over the past 12 months.

Beverage margin to reach historical peak in 2015E; what's next?

We raise our net profit forecasts by 11%/14%/13% for 2015/2016/2017 as we increase our EBIT margin forecasts for beverages. We expect beverage EBITDA margin to reach the historical peak (2009) of 16.8% in 2015. While a cheaper PET bottle price accounts for part of the margin expansion (200-300bp, by our estimate) in 2015, it might not occur in 2016 if oil prices bottom out this year. Further margin expansion should come only from mix upgrades, but revenue might stay flat due to cannibalisation, in our view. Old product revenue could decline over 30% in 2015 and continue in 2016E. Despite an accelerating innovation pipeline, historically UPC has had issues lengthening the life cycles of innovative products due to a lack of marketing resources and competition. A worrying sign is that Haizhiyan's revenue growth decelerated in Q315, according to management: combined revenue of Haizhiyan and Xiaomingtongxue may reach Rmb6bn in 2015E from less than Rmb1bn in 2014. We expect high-margin product revenue to reach Rmb8bn, but that Xiaomingtongxue will not reach Haizhiyan's level given its narrower target customer base.

Accelerating noodle premiumisation benefits UPC, but earnings are low

Noodles should account for 34%/15% of revenue and EBIT, respectively, in 2015E. We are positive about earnings growth for UPC's instant noodles segment, based on Tingyi's upgrade strategy accelerating premiumisation. If EBIT margin in 2016 returns to the peak of 3.1% in 2012, our NP forecast would increase 5%.

Valuation: upgrade to Neutral; raise price target from HK$7.09 to HK$7.23

We raise our DCF-based price target to HK$7.23 (26x/10x 2016E PE/EV/EBITDA) based on our higher earnings forecasts and Rmb depreciation. We assume a WACC of 9.1%.

Equities

China

Food Products

12-month ratingNeutral

Prior: Sell

12m price targetHK$7.23

Prior: HK$7.09

PriceHK$6.98

RIC:  0220.HK BBG:  220 HK

Trading data and key metrics

52-wk rangeHK$8.13-4.98

Market cap.HK$30.1bn/US$3.89bn

Shares o/s4,319m (ORD)

Free float30%

Avg. daily volume ('000)7,488

Avg. daily value (m)HK$52.8

Common s/h equity (12/15E)Rmb11.6bn

P/BV (12/15E)2.1x

Net debt / EBITDA (12/15E)1.5x

EPS (UBS, diluted) (Rmb)

From

To

% ch

Cons.

12/15E

0.18

0.20

11

0.20

12/16E

0.20

0.23

14

0.24

12/17E

0.24

0.27

13

0.28

Christine Peng, CFA

Analyst

christine-y.peng@ubs.com

+852-2971 7571

Erica Poon Werkun, CFA

Analyst

erica-poon.werkun@ubs.com

+852-2971 8605

Ally Chen

Analyst

ally.chen@ubs.com

+886-2-8722 7347

Highlights (Rmbm)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Revenues

21,406

23,329

22,488

22,487

23,324

24,123

24,960

25,836

EBIT (UBS)

882

441

203

1,059

1,248

1,501

1,570

1,652

Net earnings (UBS)

856

476

159

860

974

1,167

1,225

1,298

EPS (UBS, diluted) (Rmb)

0.23

0.13

0.04

0.20

0.23

0.27

0.28

0.30

DPS (Rmb)

0.05

0.05

0.01

0.04

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.09

Net (debt) / cash

(1,680)

(4,590)

(3,708)

(4,114)

(3,633)

(3,107)

(2,567)

(1,704)

Profitability/valuation

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

EBIT margin %

4.1

1.9

0.9

4.7

5.4

6.2

6.3

6.4

ROIC (EBIT) %

13.3

4.8

1.7

7.9

8.9

10.5

10.8

11.3

EV/EBITDA (core) x

11.9

15.8

15.1

10.1

9.2

8.5

7.8

7.1

P/E (UBS, diluted) x

24.6

48.9

NM

28.8

25.4

21.2

20.2

19.1

Equity FCF (UBS) yield %

(5.0)

(15.3)

(8.8)

(1.4)

2.6

3.3

3.6

5.0

Net dividend yield %

0.8

0.8

0.3

0.7

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

Source: Company accounts, Thomson Reuters, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of HK$6.98 on 12 Nov 2015 22:37 HKT

 

Investment Thesis

Uni-President China Holdings

12-month rating

Neutral

12m price target

HK$7.23

Investment case

We have a Neutral rating on Uni-President China (UPC) as we believe it is fairly valued and an expected revenue decline in H115. Utilisation rate should be depressed due to sluggish revenue growth. We prefer Tingyi and UPE over UPC given their less expensive valuations and underperformance versus UPC. Our price target implies 10x 2016E EV/EBITDA.

Upside scenario

In our upside scenario, we assume UPC's EBIT margin recovers to 6% in 2016 compared with our base case of 5.4%, if new product launches are better than expected. We estimate this would result in 12% earnings upside for 2016. If we assume 11x 2016E EV/EBITDA, we estimate a valuation of HK$8.80.

Downside scenario

In our downside scenario, we assume no revenue growth in 2016 due to weak demand and competition, resulting in 25% earnings downside for 2016. If we assume 8x 2016E EV/EBITDA, we estimate a valuation of HK$4.53.

Upcoming catalysts

A negative catalyst would be UPC reporting a Q4 loss and revenue disappointment. Continued successful roll-out of new products in both the beverage and instant noodle segments would be a positive catalyst.

Business description

Uni-President China is one of the leading manufacturers of beverages and instant noodles in China. It commenced operations in 1992 as the mainland China branch of the Uni-President Group, which is the largest food and beverage conglomerate in Taiwan. In 2014, the beverage segment accounted for 62% of its total revenue (instant noodles: 35%; others: 2%).

Industry outlook

We believe China's economic downturn will have an impact on both noodle and beverage consumption, and we expect industry growth to decelerate. This suggests execution risks for UPC in view of a low utilisation rate. We expect the competitive landscape to improve as Tingyi has adopted a profit-oriented strategy and an innovation-based growth approach; UPC will also focus on product upgrades. Furthermore, Tingyi and UPC have ended their price war in the instant noodle segment, suggesting a better margin outlook. Declining raw material prices in 2015 could result in short-term cost benefits.

Revenues by product (2015E)

Chart 8

Source: UBS estimates

EBIT by product segment

(Rmb m)

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

Operating profit

441

203

1,059

1,248

1,501

Instant noodles

(143)

(94)

128

184

242

Beverages

646

533

1,212

1,357

1,569

Others

(62)

(237)

(281)

(293)

(311)

Source: UBS estimates

Erratum: This note replaces an earlier version that did not name one of the analysts on the front page.

Today we publish an Evidence Lab report that focuses on Tier 4-5 (T4-5) city consumers' spending habits, brand awareness and preferences. T4-5 city consumers account for 63% of China's total population. The common belief is low-tier city consumers have limited categorical needs, low brand awareness, high price sensitivity and are generally satisfied with a small basket of commoditised products. We collaborated with UBS Evidence Lab to launch the inaugural UBS China T4-5 city consumption survey where we had interviewed 1,264 local residents across 10 cities in the north, south, central, east and southwest regions. Interviewed in the centre of each city, the findings therefore reflect the voices of T4-5 city dwellers and not villagers. The results suggest high brand awareness, thriving consumption, and a willingness to upgrade products for better comfort, higher food quality and safety in expectation of improving finances in the next 12 months. In this note, we analyse the implications of our survey for UPC.

According to our Evidence Lab survey of T4-5 consumers, 55% of instant noodle consumers claimed to regularly purchase UPC products, just behind Tingyi (86%). Tingyi and UPC combined dominate the segment.

Figure 1: Brand regularly purchased: instant noodles

Chart 341

Source: UBS Evidence Lab

UPC and Jiaduobao both rank high in the ready-to-drink tea sector, with some of the most popular brands regularly purchased by tea drinkers.

Figure 2: Brand regularly purchased: ready-to-drink tea

Chart 344

Source: UBS Evidence Lab

UPC's EBITDA margin historically has been highly volatile, and is cyclical after a new product launch. We expect EBITDA margin in 2015 to reach the historical high of 2009.

Figure 3: Historical EBITDA margin

Chart 3

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 4: Changes in key assumptions

 

New

Old

Change

 

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Instant noodles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASP change (%)

0.0%

3.6%

2.6%

0.0%

2.4%

2.5%

0ppts

1ppts

0ppts

Volume growth (%)

-5.0%

2.2%

2.2%

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

-5ppts

2ppts

2ppts

Beverage ASP growth (%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RTD tea

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0ppts

1ppts

1ppts

Juice drink

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0ppts

3ppts

3ppts

Other beverage

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

3.0%

2.0%

2.0%

-3ppts

-2ppts

-2ppts

Beverage volume growth (%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RTD tea

-5.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

0ppts

-5ppts

-5ppts

Juice drink

10.0%

0.0%

0.0%

10.0%

8.0%

8.0%

0ppts

-8ppts

-8ppts

Other beverage

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

8.0%

8.0%

0ppts

-8ppts

-8ppts

Revenue (Rmb m)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Instant noodles

7,562

8,009

8,402

7,960

8,205

8,464

-5.0%

-2.4%

-0.7%

Beverage

14,496

14,886

15,292

14,633

15,954

17,397

-0.9%

-6.7%

-12.1%

EBIT margin (%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Instant noodles

1.7%

2.3%

2.9%

3.3%

3.9%

4.6%

-2ppts

-2ppts

-2ppts

Beverage

8.4%

9.1%

10.3%

6.8%

6.7%

7.1%

2ppts

0ppts

0ppts

Capital expenditures (Rmb m)

2,405

1,924

1,843

2,783

1,846

2,015

-13.6%

0.0%

0.0%

Dividend payout ratio (%)

20.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

30.0%

30.0%

0ppts

0ppts

0ppts

 

Source: UBS estimates

Uni-President China Holdings (0220.HK)

Income statement (Rmbm)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

% ch

12/16E

% ch

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Revenues

21,406

23,329

22,488

22,487

0.0

23,324

3.7

24,123

24,960

25,836

Gross profit

7,402

7,780

7,308

8,415

15.1

8,756

4.1

9,276

9,619

9,988

EBITDA (UBS)

1,685

1,545

1,616

2,669

65.2

2,900

8.7

3,085

3,290

3,507

Depreciation & amortisation

(803)

(1,104)

(1,413)

(1,610)

13.9

(1,652)

2.6

(1,585)

(1,719)

(1,855)

EBIT (UBS)

882

441

203

1,059

NM

1,248

17.9

1,501

1,570

1,652

Associates & investment income

132

88

85

85

0.0

85

0.0

85

85

85

Other non-operating income

0

0

0

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Net interest

64

95

(42)

(49)

-16.3

(78)

-60.0

(70)

(60)

(44)

Exceptionals (incl goodwill)

0

0

0

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Profit before tax

1,077

625

246

1,095

345.7

1,255

14.6

1,516

1,595

1,693

Tax

(221)

(149)

(87)

(235)

-170.5

(281)

-19.6

(349)

(370)

(395)

Profit after tax

856

476

159

860

NM

974

13.2

1,167

1,225

1,298

Preference dividends and Minorities

0

0

0

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Extraordinary items

0

440

127

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Net earnings (local GAAP)

856

916

286

860

201.2

974

13.2

1,167

1,225

1,298

Net earnings (UBS)

856

476

159

860

NM

974

13.2

1,167

1,225

1,298

Tax rate (%)

20.5

23.8

35.4

21.5

-39.3

22.4

4.3

23.0

23.2

23.4

Per share (Rmb)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

% ch

12/16E

% ch

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

EPS (UBS, diluted)

0.23

0.13

0.04

0.20

398.6

0.23

13.2

0.27

0.28

0.30

EPS (local GAAP, diluted)

0.23

0.24

0.07

0.20

177.3

0.23

13.2

0.27

0.28

0.30

EPS (UBS, basic)

0.23

0.13

0.04

0.20

398.6

0.23

13.2

0.27

0.28

0.30

Net DPS (Rmb)

0.05

0.05

0.01

0.04

177.3

0.07

69.9

0.08

0.09

0.09

Book value per share

2.04

2.16

2.51

2.69

7.4

2.88

6.9

3.08

3.29

3.50

Average shares (diluted)

3,765.44

3,765.44

3,976.15

4,319.33

8.6

4,319.33

0.0

4,319.33

4,319.33

4,319.33

Balance sheet (Rmbm)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

% ch

12/16E

% ch

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Cash and equivalents

2,291

1,414

2,128

1,722

-19.1

2,203

27.9

2,729

3,270

4,133

Other current assets

2,626

3,094

2,960

3,086

4.3

3,195

3.5

3,283

3,392

3,505

Total current assets

4,917

4,508

5,088

4,809

-5.5

5,399

12.3

6,012

6,661

7,638

Net tangible fixed assets

7,912

10,186

11,642

12,496

7.3

12,827

2.6

13,144

13,489

13,565

Net intangible fixed assets

175

266

271

271

0.0

271

0.0

271

271

271

Investments / other assets

3,536

4,008

4,263

4,289

0.6

4,315

0.6

4,341

4,367

4,392

Total assets

16,540

18,968

21,264

21,865

2.8

22,812

4.3

23,768

24,788

25,866

Trade payables & other ST liabilities

4,540

4,434

4,164

3,980

-4.4

4,117

3.4

4,194

4,331

4,471

Short term debt

409

902

1,556

1,556

0.00

1,556

0.00

1,556

1,556

1,556

Total current liabilities

4,948

5,336

5,721

5,536

-3.2

5,673

2.5

5,750

5,887

6,028

Long term debt

3,562

5,102

4,280

4,280

0.0

4,280

0.0

4,280

4,280

4,280

Other long term liabilities

358

388

427

409

-4.1

417

1.9

422

429

437

Preferred shares

0

0

0

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Total liabilities (incl pref shares)

8,869

10,826

10,428

10,226

-1.9

10,371

1.4

10,452

10,597

10,745

Common s/h equity

7,671

8,142

10,837

11,640

7.4

12,441

6.9

13,316

14,191

15,121

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Total liabilities & equity

16,540

18,968

21,264

21,865

2.8

22,812

4.3

23,768

24,788

25,866

Cash flow (Rmbm)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

% ch

12/16E

% ch

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Net income (before pref divs)

856

916

286

860

201.2

974

13.2

1,167

1,225

1,298

Depreciation & amortisation

803

1,104

1,413

1,610

13.9

1,652

2.6

1,585

1,719

1,855

Net change in working capital

640

(619)

52

(328)

-

36

-

(6)

35

35

Other operating

242

(167)

(339)

(85)

74.9

(85)

0.0

(85)

(85)

(85)

Operating cash flow

2,541

1,234

1,411

2,057

45.7

2,577

25.3

2,661

2,895

3,103

Tangible capital expenditure

(3,578)

(4,746)

(3,346)

(2,405)

28.1

(1,924)

20.0

(1,843)

(2,004)

(1,873)

Intangible capital expenditure

0

0

0

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Net (acquisitions) / disposals

0

0

0

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Other investing

173

663

120

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Investing cash flow

(3,405)

(4,083)

(3,225)

(2,405)

25.4

(1,924)

20.0

(1,843)

(2,004)

(1,873)

Equity dividends paid

(94)

(171)

(183)

(57)

68.8

(172)

-201.2

(292)

(350)

(368)

Share issues / (buybacks)

0

0

2,592

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Other financing

5

113

(37)

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Change in debt & pref shares

875

2,033

(168)

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Financing cash flow

786

1,975

2,204

(57)

-

(172)

-201.2

(292)

(350)

(368)

Cash flow inc/(dec) in cash

(78)

(874)

390

(406)

-

481

-

526

541

863

FX / non cash items

0

(3)

324

0

-

0

-

0

0

0

Balance sheet inc/(dec) in cash

(78)

(877)

714

(406)

-

481

-

526

541

863

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Uni-President China Holdings (0220.HK)

Valuation (x)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

P/E (local GAAP, diluted)

24.6

25.4

74.2

28.8

25.4

21.2

20.2

19.1

P/E (UBS, diluted)

24.6

48.9

NM

28.8

25.4

21.2

20.2

19.1

P/CEPS

12.7

14.7

13.5

10.0

9.4

9.0

8.4

7.9

Equity FCF (UBS) yield %

(5.0)

(15.3)

(8.8)

(1.4)

2.6

3.3

3.6

5.0

Net dividend yield (%)

0.8

0.8

0.3

0.7

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

P/BV x

2.7

2.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.6

EV/revenues (core)

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

EV/EBITDA (core)

11.9

15.8

15.1

10.1

9.2

8.5

7.8

7.1

EV/EBIT (core)

22.8

NM

NM

25.4

21.4

17.4

16.3

15.0

EV/OpFCF (core)

NM

NM

NM

NM

27.4

21.0

19.9

15.1

EV/op. invested capital

3.0

2.6

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.7

Enterprise value (Rmbm)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Market cap.

20,794

22,924

22,030

24,776

24,776

24,776

24,776

24,776

Net debt (cash)

1,204

3,135

4,149

3,911

3,873

3,370

2,837

2,135

Buy out of minorities

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pension provisions/other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total enterprise value

21,998

26,059

26,179

28,687

28,649

28,146

27,613

26,911

Non core assets

(1,916)

(1,692)

(1,739)

(1,823)

(1,908)

(1,993)

(2,078)

(2,163)

Core enterprise value

20,082

24,366

24,440

26,863

26,741

26,152

25,534

24,747

Growth (%)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Revenue

26.4

9.0

-3.6

0.0

3.7

3.4

3.5

3.5

EBITDA (UBS)

112.8

-8.3

4.6

65.2

8.7

6.4

6.6

6.6

EBIT (UBS)

NM

-49.9

-54.0

NM

17.9

20.2

4.6

5.2

EPS (UBS, diluted)

174.4

-44.4

-68.4

NM

13.2

19.8

5.0

5.9

Net DPS

82.9

7.1

-70.5

177.3

69.9

19.8

5.0

5.9

Margins & Profitability (%)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Gross profit margin

34.6

33.3

32.5

37.4

37.5

38.5

38.5

38.7

EBITDA margin

7.9

6.6

7.2

11.9

12.4

12.8

13.2

13.6

EBIT margin

4.1

1.9

0.9

4.7

5.4

6.2

6.3

6.4

Net earnings (UBS) margin

4.0

2.0

0.7

3.8

4.2

4.8

4.9

5.0

ROIC (EBIT)

13.3

4.8

1.7

7.9

8.9

10.5

10.8

11.3

ROIC post tax

10.2

3.5

0.8

6.1

6.8

7.9

8.1

8.5

ROE (UBS)

11.8

6.0

1.7

7.7

8.1

9.1

8.9

8.9

Capital structure & Coverage (x)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Net debt / EBITDA

1.0

3.0

2.3

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.5

Net debt / total equity %

21.9

56.4

34.2

35.3

29.2

23.3

18.1

11.3

Net debt / (net debt + total equity) %

18.0

36.1

25.5

26.1

22.6

18.9

15.3

10.1

Net debt/EV %

8.4

18.8

15.2

15.3

13.6

11.9

10.1

6.9

Capex / depreciation %

NM

NM

NM

155.1

120.8

120.8

120.7

104.3

Capex / revenue %

16.7

20.3

14.9

10.7

8.2

7.6

8.0

7.2

EBIT / net interest

NM

NM

4.8

21.6

15.9

21.4

26.0

37.6

Dividend cover (UBS)

5.0

2.6

2.8

5.0

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

Div. payout ratio (UBS) %

20.0

38.5

36.0

20.0

30.0

30.0

30.0

30.0

Revenues by division (Rmbm)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Others

21,406

23,329

22,488

22,487

23,324

24,123

24,960

25,836

Total

21,406

23,329

22,488

22,487

23,324

24,123

24,960

25,836

EBIT (UBS) by division (Rmbm)

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15E

12/16E

12/17E

12/18E

12/19E

Others

882

441

203

1,059

1,248

1,501

1,570

1,652

Total

882

441

203

1,059

1,248

1,501

1,570

1,652

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation+3.6%

Forecast dividend yield1.2%

Forecast stock return+4.8%

Market return assumption9.6%

Forecast excess return-4.8%

Statement of Risk

We believe the key risks are: 1) a significant slowdown in the economy and consumption; 2) competition; 3) cost inflation; 4) price resistance; 5) a change in government policies; 6) regulation; 7) FX; and 8) refinancing risks.
Key downside risks for the company are execution, which could result in a slower-than-expected improvement in margin. More severe competition could also result in potential market share loss or higher-than-expected margin squeezes for the noodle and beverage segments.

Required Disclosures

This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS.

For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its research product; historical performance information; and certain additional disclosures concerning UBS research recommendations, please visit www.ubs.com/disclosures. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Analyst Certification: Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.

UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions

12-Month Rating

Definition

Coverage1

IB Services2

Buy

FSR is > 6% above the MRA.

49%

33%

Neutral

FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA.

40%

26%

Sell

FSR is > 6% below the MRA.

12%

18%

Short-Term Rating

Definition

Coverage3

IB Services4

Buy

Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.

less than 1%

less than 1%

Sell

Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.

less than 1%

less than 1%

Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 30 September 2015.
1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category. 2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. 3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category. 4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.

KEY DEFINITIONS: Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). Under Review (UR) Stocks may be flagged as UR by the analyst, indicating that the stock's price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the near term, usually in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation. Short-Term Ratings reflect the expected near-term (up to three months) performance of the stock and do not reflect any change in the fundamental view or investment case. Equity Price Targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.

EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES: UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions are: Buy: Positive on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount. Core Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Committee (IRC). Factors considered by the IRC include the stock's volatility and the credit spread of the respective company's debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.

Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/qualified as research analysts with the NASD and NYSE and therefore are not subject to the restrictions contained in the NASD and NYSE rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. The name of each affiliate and analyst employed by that affiliate contributing to this report, if any, follows.

UBS AG Hong Kong Branch: Christine Peng, CFA; Erica Poon Werkun, CFA. UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch: Ally Chen.

Company Disclosures

Company Name

Reuters

12-month rating

Short-term rating

Price

Price date

Tingyi Cayman Islands22

0322.HK

Buy

N/A

HK$11.96

16 Nov 2015

Uni-President China Holdings

0220.HK

Neutral

N/A

HK$6.93

16 Nov 2015

Uni-President Enterprises

1216.TW

Buy

N/A

NT$54.20

16 Nov 2015

Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close.
Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing date

22.UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries held other significant financial interests in this company/entity as of last month`s end (or the prior month`s end if this report is dated less than 10 working days after the most recent month`s end).

Unless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body of this report.

Tingyi Cayman Islands (HK$)

Source: UBS; as of 16 Nov 2015

Uni-President China Holdings (HK$)

Source: UBS; as of 16 Nov 2015

Uni-President Enterprises (NT$)

Source: UBS; as of 16 Nov 2015

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